Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.273639 3.536353 3.834119 4.202612 4.655607 5.208118 5.957739
2025-02-16 2.936017 3.272319 3.682262 4.238160 5.009273 6.114780 8.016858
2025-02-23 2.656475 3.008659 3.454859 4.092244 5.045654 6.578977 9.828187
2025-03-02 2.510170 2.883407 3.372990 4.107582 5.293667 7.466774 13.672607
2025-03-09 2.388685 2.772838 3.290169 4.097125 5.486740 8.366984 20.494304
2025-03-16 2.268022 2.650502 3.174426 4.013125 5.524209 8.970737 31.707336
2025-03-23 2.212638 2.610628 3.169361 4.098944 5.896866 10.753969 NaN
2025-03-30 2.110281 2.497734 3.046152 3.970675 5.804677 11.104912 NaN
2025-04-06 2.015811 2.390475 2.923430 3.829170 5.654534 11.168871 NaN
2025-04-13 1.944175 2.311754 2.838337 3.743662 5.610758 11.648799 NaN
2025-04-20 1.917194 2.294769 2.845166 3.819336 5.952992 14.391448 NaN
2025-04-27 1.910746 2.306439 2.896392 3.981937 6.572902 21.513986 NaN
2025-05-04 1.870568 2.268185 2.868298 3.996725 6.831080 29.214576 NaN
2025-05-11 1.836668 2.237612 2.850561 4.030227 7.168754 49.748204 NaN
2025-05-18 1.775269 2.163159 2.756413 3.899098 6.945492 49.373404 NaN
2025-05-25 1.744267 2.133184 2.734016 3.912974 7.211685 135.126780 NaN
2025-06-01 1.711453 2.098963 2.702293 3.903549 7.400227 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.669643 2.049447 2.642186 3.827680 7.321886 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.655809 2.042043 2.652747 3.905191 7.874062 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.612054 1.986990 2.578924 3.789273 7.591001 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.568099 1.930646 2.501233 3.660916 7.239485 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.534057 1.888879 2.447428 3.583112 7.091842 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.524977 1.885362 2.459160 3.651978 7.591178 NaN NaN